The oil price rout that began in mid-2014 has had devastating consequences on the Russian economy, leading some to argue that the turmoil could very likely lead to the end of Vladimir Putin’s reign as the nation’s president. Yet, if approval ratings are to be trusted, Putin’s popularity is higher than ever. While the oil boom and consequent economic prosperity that coincided with Putin’s first terms in office definitely helped his ratings, the fact that he is still highly popular with Russian citizens considering the current oil and economic situation proves other factors are contributing to his seemingly unshakeable reputation.
Oil and Putin’s Approval Ratings
For much of Putin’s first two terms in office between 2000 and 2008, Putin’s approval ratings, as reported by the Levada Center, an independent research organization, were above 70% while sometimes rising above 80%. Throughout these years, Russia’s economy boomed on the back of rising oil prices, and it has been noted that for the first decade of the 21st century Putin’s approval ratings have closely tracked Russians’ perception of the economy’s performance.
As Russia’s economy was hit hard by the global financial crisis, approval ratings for the president began to wane, reaching a low of 61% in November of 2013. It is these figures that make it tempting to believe that the single most important factor affecting Putin’s popularity is economic performance, and as the Russian economy is primarily driven by energy exports, its economy tends to rise and fall with the price of oil. Indeed, as of 2013, oil and natural gas contributed to 15.7% of GDP, comprised 50% of government revenues, and made up 68% of total exports.
Yet, with oil currently sitting at around $30 a barrel, following a more than 70% decline in prices since June 2014, which is taking its toll on the Russian economy, Putin’s approval ratings are at levels higher than during the oil price boom. And it’s not because the Russian people are disillusioned about the state of their economy. They are very much aware of the deterioration of the ruble (RUB) that has led to rising living costs and a consequent decline in living standards. This means that either the polls can’t be trusted, or there is another explanation for Putin’s popularity. (To read more, see: The Russian Economy Since the Collapse of the Soviet Union).
Finding an Explanation for Putin’s High Popularity
Founded in 1987, the Levada Center is “known around the world for its objectivity and professionalism,” according to the Moscow Times, and thus, the ratings are not likely to be skewed in any kind of pro-Putin manner. In other words, the Levada polls that show Putin’s popularity at all-time highs will have to be trusted, which means we need to find another explanation for his popularity.
One explanation is that, despite Putin’s rather authoritarian rule, many of his major decisions have actually been consistent with popular opinion. Not that Russian citizens are any stranger to more authoritarian styles of rule anyways, but one pro-Kremlin political scientist and commentator, Alexei Chadaev, has found only one instance where Putin has made a decision against a “sociologically confirmed majority opinion.” That one instance was Putin’s decision to uphold a moratorium on capital punishment.
Putin’s Popularity Soars on Annexation of Crimea
When you make decisions according to majority sentiment, regardless of whether the decision is in the nation’s best interest or not, it appears that you can become quite popular, at least it’s working for Putin. And, as public opinion would dictate, Putin’s annexation of Crimea in March 2014 saw his approval ratings, which had been dwindling, skyrocket to nearly 90%, and they have basically stayed there since.
Not even the oil price rout that began months after annexing Crimea and the subsequent depreciation of the ruble and deterioration of the Russian economy has been able to shake Putin’s popularity. Since the annexation of Crimea and the subsequent sanctions from the U.S. and EU, the ruble has almost halved in value, raising import costs that has Russian’s shelling out more money to maintain the same standard of living. Last year the economy shrunk by 3.7%, and it is projected to shrink by another 0.5% this year.
It appears that while Russian citizens feel the pain of a faltering economy, they tend to see the problems as the result of external factors out of their president’s control. As strong and mighty as Putin is, he doesn’t control the price of oil, nor can he lift the sanctions imposed on Russia by Western governments following the annexation of Crimea. Indeed, it is Putin’s willingness to stand up to the West and not back down despite continued pressure that is likely fuelling much of his popularity. (To read more, see: Sanctions & Oil Prices Bring the Russian Economy Near Collapse).
What Russian citizens have not grasped is that despite the price of oil being out of their president’s control, prudent economic management would suggest that during the boom years more efforts to diversify the economy through structural reform and strengthening of other sectors could have helped prevent the current dismal state of affairs, or least dampen their impact. So long as Putin is able to deflect such criticism he may be able to maintain his high ratings.
The Bottom Line
If the polls have any merit, then the deterioration of the economy largely due to the plunge in oil prices has failed to affect Putin’s popularity ever since Russia annexed Crimea almost two years ago. It would appear that Russian citizens like their president’s tough-guy approach in foreign affairs and believe that the economic ills are out of his control. But with oil prices likely to remain low for some time now, continued lower living standards may begin to exert their pressure, and it will be interesting to see how his approval ratings fare over the next year.
